Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ENS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-09 15.905748 18.204365 20.887038 24.292766 28.565847 33.840768 40.995121
2025-02-16 13.281229 16.156781 19.841824 25.060013 32.527964 43.308960 61.094271
2025-02-23 11.534853 14.579552 18.723559 25.044003 34.995133 51.239604 83.035293
2025-03-02 10.303915 13.397579 17.803756 24.926634 37.056947 59.113763 110.036359
2025-03-09 9.476593 12.622706 17.283089 25.218861 39.759293 69.174625 150.476383
2025-03-16 8.558496 11.584742 16.188039 24.313896 40.004485 74.409035 184.783341
2025-03-23 7.978397 10.979674 15.672454 24.278668 41.877785 84.200492 248.010879
2025-03-30 7.301165 10.153335 14.691966 23.224380 41.352515 87.840712 295.488302
2025-04-06 6.676463 9.355232 13.672824 21.939486 40.014865 88.735611 333.981140
2025-04-13 6.179279 8.721953 12.871207 20.958763 39.153947 90.754793 386.765734
2025-04-20 6.282796 9.063611 13.774157 23.475435 47.375129 127.870339 911.646519
2025-04-27 6.119804 8.946805 13.847314 24.298035 51.634361 155.765619 1832.574506
2025-05-04 5.695153 8.373451 13.062422 23.215177 50.492081 160.572703 2537.424969
2025-05-11 5.534495 8.242727 13.092466 23.969074 55.103883 200.308812 8991.106254
2025-05-18 5.300492 7.964816 12.811605 23.955700 57.367654 231.891395 48880.629349
2025-05-25 5.078201 7.691082 12.511267 23.845714 59.312393 266.374575 NaN
2025-06-01 4.914315 7.509935 12.375714 24.119721 62.789577 323.055140 NaN
2025-06-08 4.656126 7.141312 11.830622 23.270889 61.755582 337.669343 NaN
2025-06-15 4.494359 6.939840 11.610684 23.237828 63.982204 395.659639 NaN
2025-06-22 4.258956 6.589661 11.057597 22.247767 61.956661 398.700286 NaN
2025-06-29 4.019338 6.221440 10.445948 21.039464 58.726756 381.017730 NaN
2025-07-06 3.819086 5.918696 9.955506 20.115918 56.540970 376.103816 NaN
2025-07-13 3.907743 6.160251 10.627829 22.483640 70.087388 709.357781 NaN